By Dave Stockton
On 26 November, Joe Biden claimed the credit for the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Mike Waltz, president-elect Donald Trump’s nominated national security adviser, immediately retorted, ‘everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,’ adding, ‘his resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated.’
What is clear is that the moment US imperialism is no longer divided by electoral considerations, and speaks with a united voice, Israel obeys. It was one thing to allow, even encourage Isarel to degrade Hezbollah as an Iranian asset, but when it turned to the Gaza-fication of Lebanon, potentially wrecking the North American and European powers’ strategic plans for the Middle East, the US was obliged to assert red lines that it is unwilling or unable to enforce in Gaza.
Certainly, Biden was right in calling it a ‘devastating’ conflict, though of course nowhere near as devastating as the one under way in Gaza. In Lebanon over 3,000 civilians have been killed and well over a million forcibly displaced, 886,000 within Lebanon and 540,000 to Syria.
Some 99,000 housing units have been partially or fully destroyed at an estimated cost of $2.8 billion, according to the World Bank. The same report estimated damage to the country’s agriculture at $1.1 billion owing to the lost harvest, the destruction of crops and driving out of the farmers. The IDF has destroyed 39 villages south of the Litani.
The ceasefire agreement is meant to see an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and an end to their airstrikes, while Hezbollah is to move its fighters north of the Litani. The Lebanese Army and Unifil (the UN Force in Lebanon) are to occupy the 20km zone between the border and the river.
It should not be forgotten that the intensified war started when Israel’s Mossad managed to insert explosives into pagers and walkie-talkies, indiscriminately killing and injuring men, women and children, not just Hezbollah fighters. For good measure the IDF assassinated a number of the organisation’s top figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, its leader since 1992.
But its successes were all early ones. Hezbollah rocket attacks continued and hit Tel Aviv and Haifa deep inside Israel, with the Iron Dome unable to stop all of them. The ground invasion proved much less successful. The IDF suffered serious casualties and the prospect of getting into a costly quagmire loomed. Billed as designed to ‘finish them off’, Netanyahu has had to be satisfied with only ‘significantly degrading’ them.
The expansion of the war onto Lebanese territory was fellow war criminal Yoav Gallant’s idea; Netanyahu always wanted to focus on Gaza and the West Bank. Now he has dismissed Gallant from his cabinet, he can dismiss the project as solely Gallant’s and return to his primary objective: the genocide of the Palestinians and the ethnic cleansing of northern Gaza in preparation for resettlement.
The genocide goes on
In Gaza Israel is plainly some distance from its stated aim of ‘destroying Hamas’. True, Israel’s war in Gaza still retains the backing of Genocide Joe. Between 7 October 2023 and 30 September 2024 Washington provided Israel with $17.9 billion in military aid, a record amount, on top of the annual military subsidy it provides.
The main damage has been done to Israel’s undeserved reputation as ‘the only democracy in the Middle East’. Western claims to represent a ‘rules-based order’ have been exposed as meaning, ‘rules for our enemies, but not for us or our allies’. The US quickly dismissed the arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant issued by the International Criminal Court and used its veto at the UN to prevent the Security Council calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.
On 25 November, Save the Children reported that since 6 October 2024, when Israeli forces declared northern Gaza a closed military zone, 130,000 children under the age of 10 have been trapped for 50 days without access to aid workers, food, clean water or medical supplies, despite warnings of famine.
Trump has several times indicated he wants the war in Gaza ended by the time he is sworn in on 20 January. If this is in fact what Trump is pressing for, then Netanyahu may use the time to ‘clear’ the 400,000 people still in north. However, any ceasefire that does not include substantial territorial gains and control of Gaza will sharpen conflict inside the Israeli war cabinet.
Resistance
The 22nd national demonstration for Gaza in London saw diminishing numbers on the streets—despite the claims of organisers that ‘hundreds of thousands’ continue to turn out. At the same time the labour movement, above all the Labour-affiliated trade unions, remain conspicuously and disgracefully absent.
Rank and file activists in the unions need to step up their efforts to demand their unions honour their own formal commitment to BDS, and, more importantly, their obligation to the Palestinian trade unions who have appealed for direct action to cut the oxygen of western military, economic and diplomatic support upon which its genocide and occupation depend.
We should throw the labour movement’s resources into demanding the government take action to enforce an immediate ceasefire, including the withdrawal of all IDF forces from Gaza and the unimpeded access to aid. In addition, we must demand the immediate cessation of all arms supplies to, and investment in Israel.
